Global oil markets were rocked over the weekend as Brent crude soared 10% in over-the-counter trading to about $80 per barrel, according to dealers. The high increase comes after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, escalating Middle East tensions and raising worries of a larger regional conflict.

With official futures markets closed for the weekend, informal activity mirrored what many analysts predict will be the start of a much larger rally. Some experts warn that if supply interruptions worsen, oil prices could rise to or possibly exceed $100 per barrel.

Why Does the Strait of Hormuz Matter?

At the heart of the problem is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but strategically important waterway through which more than 20% of the world's oil supply flows. Tehran's warnings to ships passing through the strait have already had a chilling effect on oil logistics.

Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS, stated that, while military activity normally raises oil prices, any blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would be a game changer. If this occurs, the impact on world supplies may be swift and severe.

Several tanker owners, oil majors, and trading houses have reportedly ceased crude oil, fuel, and liquefied natural gas shipments via the strait due to increased security risks. Even the impression of danger in such a critical corridor is enough to shake markets.

Prices Could Reach $100

Not all analysts expect triple digit oil prices just yet. Rabobank, for example, expects prices to remain above $90 per barrel in the near term rather than skyrocket dramatically. Still, even that level would mark a huge increase from recent months.

To put things in context, Brent had already been soaring before the strikes, reaching $73 a barrel on Friday its highest level since July pushed by growing fear over probable military action.

How Much Oil is at Risk?

That volume comprises a significant portion of daily global production, resulting in an acute supply demand mismatch. Rystad predicts prices to rise by roughly $20, potentially reaching $92 per barrel when markets reopen though this prediction could change fast depending on ground conditions.

OPEC+ Increases Supply' But Is It Enough?

While the increase represents an attempt to calm prices, many analysts feel it will do little to overcome a significant supply disruption from the Gulf region.

Global Ripple Effects

Analysts at Kpler stated in a weekend webinar that India, one of the world's top oil consumers, may increase purchases of Russian crude if Middle Eastern supplies become limited. As buyers strive for dependable delivery, such disruptions may distort global trade patterns even further.

Beyond energy markets, persistently high oil prices may have broader economic repercussions. Higher fuel costs often contribute to inflation, increase transportation and industrial costs, and strain consumer budgets around the world. Central banks, which have been treading carefully in the aftermath of the pandemic's economic recovery and inflation management, may face renewed pressure if oil prices rise quickly.

What Happens Next?

Investors, legislators, and consumers are paying close attention. Energy markets are notoriously sensitive to geopolitical risk, and this latest incident demonstrates how rapidly global supply chains can be disrupted.

For the time being, the globe is waiting for markets to reopen and clarification on whether the crisis will escalate or subside. One thing is certain: in a region that provides a sizable portion of the world's energy, stability is inextricably linked to global economic health. And when tensions escalate there, oil prices rarely remain stable for long.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), has urged global investors to capitalize on opportunities in Nigeria’s 2025 licensing round, emphasizing that recent reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 provide a predictable, transparent, and investor-friendly framework for upstream development.

The Commission Chief Executive, Mrs. Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, made this known on Tuesday, February 10, 2026, in her address at the opening of the 10th Anniversary of the Sub-Saharan Africa International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (SAIPEC) 2026 in Lagos.

According to Eyesan, the licensing round is designed to unlock Nigeria’s upstream potential under a more predictable and investor-friendly regulatory framework established by the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021.

The NUPRC boss added that Nigeria is leveraging the momentum of renewed global interest in Africa’s hydrocarbons to attract credible investors into its upstream sector.

“To facilitate resource access, Nigeria has launched the 2025 licensing round, offering 50 oil and gas blocks across various terrains.

“This initiative reflects a targeted approach to responsible resource development. We invite capable investors to participate and help realize Nigeria’s promising upstream potential,” Eyesan stated.

She noted that Africa’s energy investment outlook has significantly improved over the past three years, with the continent now capturing a larger slice of global capital expenditure.

“Of the $520 billion projected in worldwide capital investment this year, Africa expects to attract between $48 billion and $50 billion. over 8% of the total. This is a significant increase from previous years when it was below 4%.”

The NUPRC boss attributed the resurgence to renewed investor interest in frontier and established basins, particularly in Nigeria, Namibia, Mozambique and other prolific African plays.

Beyond foreign investment, Eyesan stressed the importance of domestic and regional capital formation as a stabilizing force for Africa’s energy future.

“As we work to draw in more external investment, encouraging capital formation within Africa remains essential. Domestic capital brings stronger commitment and stability, creating more opportunities for development,” the CCE said.

Eyesan noted that African independent operators are already playing a growing role in Nigeria’s upstream space, driving project execution and capital deployment.

A major milestone in strengthening indigenous financing, according to Eyesan, is the establishment of the Africa Energy Bank, which is headquartered in Nigeria.

“The creation of the Africa Energy Bank, proudly hosted in Nigeria, is a milestone,” she said, adding, “Unified support from stakeholders will be crucial to its success.”

The NUPRC boss also highlighted the growing impact of regional cooperation, particularly in gas development, power infrastructure and regulatory alignment.

“Beyond national efforts, regional cooperation is having a transformative effect,” she said, pointing to expanded gas and power infrastructure that is improving energy access, reliability and affordability across Africa.

She added that platforms such as the African Petroleum Regulators’ Forum (AFRIPERF) are strengthening Africa’s collective voice globally.

The Commission Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Mrs. Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, has called for the strengthening of the African Petroleum Regulators’ Forum (AFRIPERF) as a critical platform for harmonizing energy regulation across the continent and unlocking large-scale investment in Africa’s oil and gas sector.

The NUPRC boss made the call in her keynote address at the Nigerian International Energy Summit (NIES), held at the International Conference Centre (ICC) on Monday, February 2, 2026.

Eyesan, represented by NUPRC Director, Mr. Edu Inyang, spoke on the theme “One Africa, One Regulator Voice: Aligned Policies for Continental Prosperity and Investment.”

She said inconsistent regulatory frameworks across African countries remain a major deterrent to cross-border energy projects, stressing that a unified regulatory voice would significantly lower investment risks and accelerate development.

“Investors are not deterred by Africa’s geology; they are deterred by inconsistent rules,” the NUPRC boss stated.

“AFRIPERF was established to institutionalize regulatory convergence, provide predictability, and enable faster execution of cross-border projects that deliver shared prosperity.”

According to Eyesan, AFRIPERF, which was launched in collaboration with petroleum regulators across the continent, is already advancing aligned standards, shared data platforms, capacity building and a unified African voice on global energy and climate platforms.

She explained that Africa’s prospects for shared prosperity are underpinned by the scale of its natural and human capital, noting that the continent holds approximately 8% of global oil and gas reserves, nearly 30% of known critical mineral resources, and a population exceeding 1.5 billion people, which is largely youthful and economically active.

“When these advantages are developed through coordinated policies, integrated infrastructure and aligned regulatory frameworks, they can drive industrialization, strengthen regional value chains, enhance energy security and deliver inclusive growth,” Eyesan said.

She reaffirmed that oil and gas resources remain integral to Africa’s development, supporting electricity generation, clean cooking, petrochemicals, fertilizer production and public revenues that fund infrastructure and social services, even as the continent pursues a just and orderly energy transition.

Eyesan highlighted Africa’s success in speaking with one voice at global platforms, including successive COP meetings, where coordinated advocacy secured recognition of Africa’s unique development needs and the role of gas as a transition fuel. She noted that similar unity helped secure the historic Loss and Damage Fund at COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh.

Drawing attention to practical examples of cooperation, she cited the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), regional power pools, and cross-border gas infrastructure such as the West African Gas Pipeline as evidence that policy alignment accelerates development and expands access to affordable energy.

She also pointed to missed opportunities, noting that over 180 trillion cubic feet of discovered natural gas across Africa remains unsanctioned for development, largely due to fragmented markets and unaligned fiscal and regulatory regimes.

“Nigeria has taken deliberate steps to lead by example,” Eyesan said, referencing the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, ongoing transparent licensing rounds, and major gas infrastructure projects including the AKK pipeline, the Nigeria–Morocco Gas Pipeline and the revived Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline.

The CCE added that the Africa Energy Bank, headquartered in Nigeria, is mobilizing African capital for African energy projects, helping to bridge financing gaps left by global capital withdrawal.

In her closing remarks, Eyesan urged African regulators and policymakers to deepen cooperation by strengthening AFRIPERF, expanding regional gas and electricity networks, adopting shared sustainability standards and maintaining a unified African stance in global energy and climate discussions.

“Our voice must be one, our frameworks aligned, and our actions coordinated,” she said. “Only then can we unlock the full transformative power of Africa’s resources for our people.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has provided further clarification for the ongoing licensing round, especially for bidders interested in the 50 oil and gas blocks on offer.

According to the Commission's Chief Executive, Mrs. Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, only applicants with strong technical and financial credentials will proceed to the critical stage of the bidding process.

Eyesan said this at the 2025 licensing round pre-bid webinar on Wednesday, January 28, 2026.

She said, “The process follows five steps: registration and pre-qualification, data acquisition, technical bid submission, evaluation, and a commercial bid conference.

“Only candidates with strong technical and financial credentials, professionalism, and credible plans move forward. Winners are chosen through a transparent, merit-based procedure.”

The NUPRC boss noted that with the approval of His Excellency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, signature bonuses for the 2025 licensing round are now set within a value range that reduces entry barriers and places greater weight on what truly matters: technical capability, credible work programs, financial strength, and the ability to deliver production within the shortest possible time.

“This has been done to increase competitiveness and in response to capital mobility,” the CCE stated.

Eyesan described the licensing round as an open call for committed partners; those ready to invest capital, bring technical excellence, and accelerate Nigeria’s assets from license award to exploration, appraisal, and ultimately, full production.

The NUPRC boss restated the Commission’s commitment to a transparent licensing round, insisting that Nigeria is “ready to be the beautiful bride to capital and playroom for advanced technological deployment for hydrocarbon recovery.”

She added, “In this licensing round, 50 oil and gas blocks across Nigeria are available, allowing investors to access the country's key basins and create long-term value.”

Eyesan further assured the public that the bid process will comply with the Petroleum Industry Act, promote the use of digital tools for smooth data access and remain open to public and institutional scrutiny through the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) and other oversight agencies.

“Let me emphasize that the Nigeria 2025 Licensing Round is not merely a bidding exercise. It is a clear signal of a re-imagined upstream sector, anchored in the rule of law, driven by data, aligned with global investment realities, and focused on long-term value creation,” the NUPRC boss said.

During the webinar, subject matter experts from the NUPRC explained the guidelines, model contracts, bid parameters, and evaluation criteria in order to help investors navigate uncertainty and operate within a framework that is transparent, predictable, and deliberately designed to inspire confidence.

Eniola Akinkuotu

Head, Media and Strategic Communication